Waters may rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Hurricane Dorian weakened to a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds the morning of Tuesday, Sept. 3, and resumed a slow movement northwest.
It is still expected to parallel the Florida coast and remain offshore, with a slight increase in speed but minimal changes in intensity over the next two days, according to the National Hurricane Center's storm update message released at 11 a.m.
After two days, the storm is expected to lose some wind speed but grow in size as it turns northeast and approaches the Carolinas.
The storm's eyes has gotten larger, but also "a bit more ragged," according to the NHC message.
"Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the Florida east coast, the increasing size of Dorian's wind field along with any deviation to the left of the forecast track will bring hurricane-force winds onshore along portions of the Florida east coast," the NHC message states.
The NHC is predicting life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds along parts of the Florida coast, with a. risk of flash floods, and has warned that water levels may rise well ahead of the arrival of strong winds.
Wind speed projections
Any change in Dorian's path could change wind projections dramatically.
Currently, winds in the coastal Flagler/Volusia area are about 20 mph, and are expected to rise to 26 mph (with 40 mph gusts) by 4 p.m. and remain there until 10 p.m. before rising again, according to the National Weather Center.
Winds tonight are expected to reach 30 mph around midnight, and continue to climb to a high of 39 mph (with 57 mph gusts) at 10 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 4, before decreasing, reaching 33 mph (gusts 51 mph) by 4 p.m. Wednesday, and 23 mph by 7 p.m. Wednesday.